After about 15 minutes of lazy, Sunday morning analysis, I've concluded that only four of us still have a shot to win this thing. The probabilities for each vary wildly though. Here is my take on each contender's path to victory:
Mickey Ogg - 65% chance to win
Mickey has a scant 17 point lead with three players remaining. His future prospects are heavily invested in North Carolina, who is currently a one point dog to Kentucky in today's contest (according to bodog.com). If UNC defeats Kentucky and his two players hit or exceed their current tournament scoring averages, Mickey will be in great shape heading into the Final Four. If a UNC Final Four berth is coupled with Connecticut taking out Butler next Saturday, the pot will go to Mickey.
Teigue - 30% chance to win
Teigue rolled deep with his Butler selections, as the rest of the drafters slept on the defending national runner-ups. With his double-points player still alive (Shelvin Mack), he continues to gain ground on Micky. He'll be in great shape if UNC loses to Kentucky and Butler defeats Connecticut next weekend.
Mike Keens - 2.5% chance to win
Keens has no shot unless VCU takes down Kansas this afternoon. Even if they do, he needs his Ram duo to outscore Nathan's money baller by over a two to one ratio.
Nathan - 2.5% chance to win
He's been on life support since losing West Virginia in the round of 32, but Bradford Burgess has been a revelation as a $ man. Nathan needs Kentucky to defeat North Carolina and probably needs VCU to make the national championship game with Burgess leading the team in scoring along the way.
Pierce/Carolyn/Rookie/Kendall - 0% chance to win
You four still have some moving/shaking to do, but I think its close to impossible for you to win.
By all means, correct me if I'm wrong!
Great stuff Nathan! Unfortunately, you got your bracket wrong --- UConn plays the UNC/UK winner, and Butler plays VCU (or maybe Kansas, I guess).
ReplyDeleteDoes that change things?
I think it does but only a bit. I think it might give Mickey a slighter larger edge, since he'll have guaranteed points in the championship game if UNC beats Kentucky. Knock on wood, but Keens is looking sharp with VCU up by 14 at the half. A Butler/VCU Final Four matchup would at least give Mickey a run for the money, though.
ReplyDeleteWell, the elite eight didn't go like I planned.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it, but VCU is going to lose this weekend...not because Butler will outplay them, but because every media outlet in the WORLD is now following them (NPR, CNBC, MSNBC, Fox). This has to be a kiss of death, sadly.
ReplyDeleteI think that Teigue wins this thing. Mack and Butler duped all of us but one!
ReplyDelete